In 2024 and early 2025, OCC experienced a roller-coaster ride: after a mid 2024 spike with prices reportedly up roughly 245% year-over-year the market reversed sharply. By December 2024, U.S. OCC prices had dropped to around US $66/ton, falling ~17% year-over-year and ~11% month-over-month. This slump largely reflects weakened demand for corrugated box shipments and a general slowdown in packaging needs as post-pandemic consumption cooled.
Still, structural and longer-term drivers point to some rebound potential. Demand for recycled paper and containers remains high: U.S. mills in 2025 used a record volume of OCC — over 25 million tons, more than previous years.
For 2026, many analysts expect a gradual not explosive recovery. OCC demand is forecast to stabilize and inch upward, especially as older capacity comes offline: North American containerboard capacity has shrunk in 2025, and continuing mill closures are expected to tighten supply further.
That supply-side contraction, if combined with renewed demand (e.g., from packaging, e-commerce, food & beverage, and recycling trends), could push OCC prices modestly upward — possibly a $30–40/ton lift by mid- to late-2026, according to some forecasts. However, risks remain: demand is unlikely to surge dramatically, and substitution could cap growth.
The bottom line is OCC is likely to move into a period of modest recovery in 2026 prices and demand may improve gradually, helped by tighter supply and sustained recycled-material demand, but don’t expect a big rebound. The outlook favors steady stabilization rather than a dramatic rebound.
